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SC St. Tönis vs SW Essen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SC St. Tönis
SC St. Tönis
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SW Essen
SW Essen
11/19/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 15Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

SC St. Tönis44%
×Draw22%
SW Essen34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC St. Tönis
1.89
SW Essen
1.65

SC St. Tönis creates 15% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 91 away

creates per match

SC St. Tönis
2.14
SW Essen
1.73

allows per match

SC St. Tönis
1.56
SW Essen
1.63

finishing

SC St. Tönis+0.00on par
SW Essen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC St. Tönis ↓

SW Essen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

SC St. Tönis or draw
66%
SC St. Tönis or SW Essen
78%
Draw or SW Essen
56%

Winning margin

SC St. Tönis wins by 2+
24%
SW Essen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SC St. Tönis 1+ goals
85%
SC St. Tönis 2+ goals
56%
SC St. Tönis 3+ goals
29%
SW Essen 1+ goals
81%
SW Essen 2+ goals
49%
SW Essen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

SC St. Tönis (draw refunded)
56%
SW Essen (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC St. Tönis at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

SW Essen away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC St. Tönis attack 2.14 + SW Essen defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.89

SW Essen attack 1.73 + SC St. Tönis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SC St. Tönis scores more
44%
level
22%
SW Essen scores more
34%

SC St. Tönis at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SC St. Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC St. Tönis vs SW Essen

SC St. Tönis beat SW Essen 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Jahn-Sport-Anlage in Tönisvorst.