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SC St. Tönis vs Straelen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SC St. Tönis
SC St. Tönis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Straelen
Straelen
10/8/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 9Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SC St. Tönis35%
×Draw22%
Straelen43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC St. Tönis
1.64
Straelen
1.84

Straelen creates 12% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 8 away

creates per match

SC St. Tönis
2.14
Straelen
2.13

allows per match

SC St. Tönis
1.56
Straelen
1.13

finishing

SC St. Tönis+0.00on par
Straelen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC St. Tönis ↓

Straelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

SC St. Tönis or draw
57%
SC St. Tönis or Straelen
78%
Draw or Straelen
65%

Winning margin

SC St. Tönis wins by 2+
17%
Straelen wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

SC St. Tönis 1+ goals
81%
SC St. Tönis 2+ goals
49%
SC St. Tönis 3+ goals
23%
Straelen 1+ goals
84%
Straelen 2+ goals
55%
Straelen 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

SC St. Tönis (draw refunded)
45%
Straelen (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC St. Tönis at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

Straelen away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC St. Tönis attack 2.14 + Straelen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.64

Straelen attack 2.13 + SC St. Tönis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SC St. Tönis scores more
35%
level
22%
Straelen scores more
43%

Straelen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Straelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC St. Tönis vs Straelen

Straelen beat SC St. Tönis 1-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Jahn-Sport-Anlage in Tönisvorst.