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SC St. Tönis vs SF Niederwenigern — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SC St. Tönis
SC St. Tönis
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
SF Niederwenigern
SF Niederwenigern
D. Kamo 47', 17'
J. Torrens 6'
D. Schumacher 31'
8/24/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 2Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

SC St. Tönis57%
×Draw20%
SF Niederwenigern23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC St. Tönis
2.25
SF Niederwenigern
1.36

SC St. Tönis creates 65% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 38 away

creates per match

SC St. Tönis
2.14
SF Niederwenigern
1.16

allows per match

SC St. Tönis
1.56
SF Niederwenigern
2.37

finishing

SC St. Tönis+0.00on par
SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC St. Tönis ↓

SF Niederwenigern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

SC St. Tönis or draw
77%
SC St. Tönis or SF Niederwenigern
80%
Draw or SF Niederwenigern
43%

Winning margin

SC St. Tönis wins by 2+
35%
SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SC St. Tönis 1+ goals
89%
SC St. Tönis 2+ goals
65%
SC St. Tönis 3+ goals
39%
SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals
74%
SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals
39%
SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

SC St. Tönis (draw refunded)
72%
SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC St. Tönis at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

SF Niederwenigern away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC St. Tönis attack 2.14 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.25

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.16 + SC St. Tönis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SC St. Tönis scores more
57%
level
20%
SF Niederwenigern scores more
23%

SC St. Tönis at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SC St. Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
J. Torrens
17'
D. Kamo
31'
D. Schumacher
47'
D. Kamo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SC St. Tönis 3–1 SF Niederwenigern

SC St. Tönis beat SF Niederwenigern 3-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on August 24, 2024.

Goals: J. Torrens (6'), D. Kamo (17', 47'), D. Schumacher (31').

The match was played at Jahn-Sport-Anlage in Tönisvorst.