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SC St. Tönis vs SF Baumberg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SC St. Tönis
SC St. Tönis
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
SF Baumberg
SF Baumberg
9/11/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 4Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

SC St. Tönis45%
×Draw21%
SF Baumberg33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC St. Tönis
2.04
SF Baumberg
1.73

SC St. Tönis creates 18% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 95 away

creates per match

SC St. Tönis
2.14
SF Baumberg
1.91

allows per match

SC St. Tönis
1.56
SF Baumberg
1.93

finishing

SC St. Tönis+0.00on par
SF Baumberg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC St. Tönis ↓

SF Baumberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

SC St. Tönis or draw
67%
SC St. Tönis or SF Baumberg
79%
Draw or SF Baumberg
55%

Winning margin

SC St. Tönis wins by 2+
26%
SF Baumberg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SC St. Tönis 1+ goals
87%
SC St. Tönis 2+ goals
60%
SC St. Tönis 3+ goals
33%
SF Baumberg 1+ goals
82%
SF Baumberg 2+ goals
52%
SF Baumberg 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

SC St. Tönis (draw refunded)
58%
SF Baumberg (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC St. Tönis at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

SF Baumberg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.93 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC St. Tönis attack 2.14 + SF Baumberg defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.04

SF Baumberg attack 1.91 + SC St. Tönis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SC St. Tönis scores more
45%
level
21%
SF Baumberg scores more
33%

SC St. Tönis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SC St. Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SC St. Tönis 2–1 SF Baumberg

SC St. Tönis beat SF Baumberg 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Jahn-Sport-Anlage in Tönisvorst.