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SC St. Tönis vs KFC Uerdingen 05 — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SC St. Tönis
SC St. Tönis
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KFC Uerdingen 05
KFC Uerdingen 05
9/3/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 4Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

SC St. Tönis43%
×Draw23%
KFC Uerdingen 0534%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC St. Tönis
1.77
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.54

SC St. Tönis creates 15% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 53 away

creates per match

SC St. Tönis
2.14
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.51

allows per match

SC St. Tönis
1.56
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.40

finishing

SC St. Tönis+0.00on par
KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC St. Tönis ↓

KFC Uerdingen 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

SC St. Tönis or draw
66%
SC St. Tönis or KFC Uerdingen 05
77%
Draw or KFC Uerdingen 05
57%

Winning margin

SC St. Tönis wins by 2+
23%
KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SC St. Tönis 1+ goals
83%
SC St. Tönis 2+ goals
53%
SC St. Tönis 3+ goals
26%
KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals
79%
KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals
45%
KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SC St. Tönis (draw refunded)
56%
KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC St. Tönis at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

KFC Uerdingen 05 away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC St. Tönis attack 2.14 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 1.51 + SC St. Tönis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SC St. Tönis scores more
43%
level
23%
KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more
34%

SC St. Tönis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SC St. Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC St. Tönis vs KFC Uerdingen 05

SC St. Tönis beat KFC Uerdingen 05 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Jahn-Sport-Anlage in Tönisvorst.