SC St. Tönis 4–1 FSV Duisburg: Result & Stats

SC St. Tönis

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FSV Duisburg

8/14/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 3Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

SC St. Tönis63%

×Draw19%

FSV Duisburg19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC St. TönisExpected goals in this matchFSV Duisburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.25

SC St. Tönis

2.42

FSV Duisburg

1.25

SC St. Tönis creates 94% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 42 away

2.14

creates per match

0.93

1.56

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

SC St. Tönis

2.14

FSV Duisburg

0.93

allows per match

SC St. Tönis

1.56

FSV Duisburg

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC St. Tönis+0.00on par

FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC St. Tönis ↓

FSV Duisburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

SC St. Tönis or draw

81%

SC St. Tönis or FSV Duisburg

81%

Draw or FSV Duisburg

37%

Winning margin

SC St. Tönis wins by 2+

41%

FSV Duisburg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

SC St. Tönis 1+ goals

91%

SC St. Tönis 2+ goals

69%

SC St. Tönis 3+ goals

43%

FSV Duisburg 1+ goals

71%

FSV Duisburg 2+ goals

36%

FSV Duisburg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

SC St. Tönis (draw refunded)

77%

FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC St. Tönis at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC St. Tönis attack 2.14 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.42

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + SC St. Tönis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

SC St. Tönis scores more

63%

level

19%

FSV Duisburg scores more

19%

SC St. Tönis at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "SC St. Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff