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SC Sopron vs Csornai SE — NB III - Northwest 2019

SC Sopron
SC Sopron
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Csornai SE
Csornai SE
11/5/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 14Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

SC Sopron54%
×Draw22%
Csornai SE23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Sopron
1.91
Csornai SE
1.18

SC Sopron creates 62% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

SC Sopron
1.49
Csornai SE
0.93

allows per match

SC Sopron
1.42
Csornai SE
2.33

finishing

SC Sopron+0.00on par
Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Sopron ↓

Csornai SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SC Sopron or draw
77%
SC Sopron or Csornai SE
78%
Draw or Csornai SE
46%

Winning margin

SC Sopron wins by 2+
31%
Csornai SE wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SC Sopron 1+ goals
85%
SC Sopron 2+ goals
57%
SC Sopron 3+ goals
30%
Csornai SE 1+ goals
69%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
33%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SC Sopron (draw refunded)
70%
Csornai SE (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Sopron at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Sopron attack 1.49 + Csornai SE defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.91

Csornai SE attack 0.93 + SC Sopron defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SC Sopron scores more
54%
level
22%
Csornai SE scores more
23%

SC Sopron at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SC Sopron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Sopron vs Csornai SE

SC Sopron and Csornai SE drew 1-1 in NB III - Northwest on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Sopron.