SC Paulinense SP U20 1–0 Desportivo Brasil U20

SC Paulinense SP U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Desportivo Brasil U20

Unknown 49'

6/26/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SC Paulinense SP U2051%

×Draw27%

Desportivo Brasil U2022%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC Paulinense SP U20Expected goals in this matchDesportivo Brasil U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.84

SC Paulinense SP U20

1.43

Desportivo Brasil U20

0.84

SC Paulinense SP U20 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 23 away

1.25

creates per match

1.43

0.25

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

SC Paulinense SP U20

1.25

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.43

allows per match

SC Paulinense SP U20

0.25

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Paulinense SP U20+0.00on par

Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Paulinense SP U20 ↓

Desportivo Brasil U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

SC Paulinense SP U20 or draw

78%

SC Paulinense SP U20 or Desportivo Brasil U20

73%

Draw or Desportivo Brasil U20

49%

Winning margin

SC Paulinense SP U20 wins by 2+

25%

Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

SC Paulinense SP U20 1+ goals

76%

SC Paulinense SP U20 2+ goals

42%

SC Paulinense SP U20 3+ goals

17%

Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals

57%

Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals

21%

Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

SC Paulinense SP U20 (draw refunded)

70%

Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Paulinense SP U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Desportivo Brasil U20 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Paulinense SP U20 attack 1.25 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.43 + SC Paulinense SP U20 defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SC Paulinense SP U20 scores more

51%

level

27%

Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more

22%

SC Paulinense SP U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SC Paulinense SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff