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SC Paderborn 07 vs Plzen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Plzen
Plzen
1/9/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Melia Villaitana Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SC Paderborn 0730%
×Draw22%
Plzen48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Paderborn 07
1.49
Plzen
1.92

Plzen creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

SC Paderborn 07
2.36
Plzen
2.38

allows per match

SC Paderborn 07
1.45
Plzen
0.63

finishing

SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Paderborn 07 ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

SC Paderborn 07 or draw
52%
SC Paderborn 07 or Plzen
78%
Draw or Plzen
70%

Winning margin

SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
14%
Plzen wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
77%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
44%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
19%
Plzen 1+ goals
85%
Plzen 2+ goals
57%
Plzen 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
39%
Plzen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Paderborn 07 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Plzen away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Paderborn 07 attack 2.36 + Plzen defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.49

Plzen attack 2.38 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SC Paderborn 07 scores more
30%
level
22%
Plzen scores more
48%

Plzen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: SC Paderborn 07 2–2 Plzen

SC Paderborn 07 and Plzen drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 9, 2025.

The match was played at Melia Villaitana Football Center.