SC Paderborn 07 4–3 Fortuna Dusseldorf

SC Paderborn 07

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

Fortuna Dusseldorf

2/4/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 20Home Deluxe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

SC Paderborn 0745%

×Draw24%

Fortuna Dusseldorf32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC Paderborn 07Expected goals in this matchFortuna Dusseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.40

SC Paderborn 07

1.71

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.40

SC Paderborn 07 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 102 away

2.04

creates per match

1.38

1.41

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

SC Paderborn 07

2.04

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.38

allows per match

SC Paderborn 07

1.41

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Paderborn 07 ↓

Fortuna Dusseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

SC Paderborn 07 or draw

68%

SC Paderborn 07 or Fortuna Dusseldorf

76%

Draw or Fortuna Dusseldorf

55%

Winning margin

SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+

24%

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals

82%

SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals

51%

SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals

24%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals

75%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals

41%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)

59%

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Paderborn 07 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.41 · 120 matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Paderborn 07 attack 2.04 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.71

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.38 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SC Paderborn 07 scores more

45%

level

24%

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more

32%

SC Paderborn 07 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SC Paderborn 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff