SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — 2. Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 28+ matches
SC Paderborn 0756%
FC Wurzburger Kickers22%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
SC Paderborn 07 creates 69% more chances
Season form · 117 home / 28 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
SC Paderborn 07 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
SC Paderborn 07 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.39 · 117 matches
FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 28 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
SC Paderborn 07 attack 2.03 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.96
FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.93 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.16
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
SC Paderborn 07 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "SC Paderborn 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
SC Paderborn 07 substitutes
FC Schalke 04
SV ElversbergSC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Hertha BSC
1. FC Nürnberg
VfL Bochum
Karlsruher SC
Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Arminia Bielefeld
1. FC Magdeburg
Eintracht Braunschweig
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Preußen Münster
Rot-Weiß EssenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
SC Paderborn 07 host FC Wurzburger Kickers on Saturday, 23 January 2021 at 12:00. The match is part of the 2. Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Wurzburger Kickers
SC Paderborn 07 beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on January 23, 2021.
Goals: D. Srbeny (31').
SC Paderborn 07 controlled possession (64%) and registered 10 shots to 4.
The match was played at Benteler-Arena in Paderborn.