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SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
3/15/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 26Home Deluxe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

SC Paderborn 0757%
×Draw21%
Eintracht Braunschweig22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Paderborn 07
2.02
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.17

SC Paderborn 07 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 87 away

creates per match

SC Paderborn 07
2.04
Eintracht Braunschweig
0.94

allows per match

SC Paderborn 07
1.41
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.99

finishing

SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par
Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Paderborn 07 ↓

Eintracht Braunschweig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SC Paderborn 07 or draw
78%
SC Paderborn 07 or Eintracht Braunschweig
79%
Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig
43%

Winning margin

SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
34%
Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
87%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
60%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
33%
Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
69%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
33%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
72%
Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Paderborn 07 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.41 · 120 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.99 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Paderborn 07 attack 2.04 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.02

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.94 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SC Paderborn 07 scores more
57%
level
21%
Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
22%

SC Paderborn 07 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SC Paderborn 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: SC Paderborn 07 1–2 Eintracht Braunschweig

Eintracht Braunschweig beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn.