SC Landskron 3–2 Maria Saal: Result & Stats

SC Landskron

FT

3 – 2

Maria Saal

9/17/2022

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 10Sportplatz SC Landskron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

SC Landskron43%

×Draw21%

Maria Saal35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC LandskronExpected goals in this matchMaria Saal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.78

SC Landskron

1.99

Maria Saal

1.78

SC Landskron creates 12% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 49 away

1.45

creates per match

1.43

2.13

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

SC Landskron

1.45

Maria Saal

1.43

allows per match

SC Landskron

2.13

Maria Saal

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Landskron+0.00on par

Maria Saal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Landskron ↓

Maria Saal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

SC Landskron or draw

65%

SC Landskron or Maria Saal

79%

Draw or Maria Saal

57%

Winning margin

SC Landskron wins by 2+

24%

Maria Saal wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

SC Landskron 1+ goals

86%

SC Landskron 2+ goals

59%

SC Landskron 3+ goals

32%

Maria Saal 1+ goals

83%

Maria Saal 2+ goals

53%

Maria Saal 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

SC Landskron (draw refunded)

55%

Maria Saal (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Landskron at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Maria Saal away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Landskron attack 1.45 + Maria Saal defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.99

Maria Saal attack 1.43 + SC Landskron defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SC Landskron scores more

43%

level

21%

Maria Saal scores more

35%

SC Landskron at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SC Landskron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff