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SC Landskron vs Kraig — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

SC Landskron
SC Landskron
FT
0 – 1
Kraig
Kraig
10/29/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 16Sportplatz SC Landskron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

SC Landskron43%
×Draw23%
Kraig34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Landskron
1.82
Kraig
1.59

SC Landskron creates 14% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 63 away

creates per match

SC Landskron
1.45
Kraig
1.06

allows per match

SC Landskron
2.13
Kraig
2.19

finishing

SC Landskron+0.00on par
Kraig+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Landskron ↓

Kraig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

SC Landskron or draw
66%
SC Landskron or Kraig
77%
Draw or Kraig
57%

Winning margin

SC Landskron wins by 2+
23%
Kraig wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SC Landskron 1+ goals
84%
SC Landskron 2+ goals
54%
SC Landskron 3+ goals
27%
Kraig 1+ goals
80%
Kraig 2+ goals
47%
Kraig 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SC Landskron (draw refunded)
56%
Kraig (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Landskron at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Kraig away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.19 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Landskron attack 1.45 + Kraig defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.82

Kraig attack 1.06 + SC Landskron defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SC Landskron scores more
43%
level
23%
Kraig scores more
34%

SC Landskron at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SC Landskron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Landskron vs Kraig

Kraig beat SC Landskron 1-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz SC Landskron in Landskron.