SC Kriens 3–0 Young Boys II: Result & Stats

SC Kriens

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Young Boys II

11/9/2024

1. Liga Promotion · Round 16Stadion Kleinfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

SC Kriens55%

×Draw21%

Young Boys II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC KriensExpected goals in this matchYoung Boys II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.35

SC Kriens

2.15

Young Boys II

1.35

SC Kriens creates 59% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 85 away

2.34

creates per match

1.35

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

SC Kriens

2.34

Young Boys II

1.35

allows per match

SC Kriens

1.35

Young Boys II

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Kriens+0.00on par

Young Boys II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Kriens ↓

Young Boys II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

SC Kriens or draw

76%

SC Kriens or Young Boys II

79%

Draw or Young Boys II

45%

Winning margin

SC Kriens wins by 2+

34%

Young Boys II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SC Kriens 1+ goals

88%

SC Kriens 2+ goals

63%

SC Kriens 3+ goals

36%

Young Boys II 1+ goals

74%

Young Boys II 2+ goals

39%

Young Boys II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

SC Kriens (draw refunded)

70%

Young Boys II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Kriens at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

Young Boys II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.96 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Kriens attack 2.34 + Young Boys II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.15

Young Boys II attack 1.35 + SC Kriens defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SC Kriens scores more

55%

level

21%

Young Boys II scores more

24%

SC Kriens at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SC Kriens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff