SC Kriens 1–1 Luzern II: Result & Stats

SC Kriens

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Luzern II

3/2/2024

1. Liga Promotion · Round 21Stadion Kleinfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

SC Kriens51%

×Draw20%

Luzern II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC KriensExpected goals in this matchLuzern II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.70

SC Kriens

2.30

Luzern II

1.70

SC Kriens creates 35% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

2.34

creates per match

2.04

1.35

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

SC Kriens

2.34

Luzern II

2.04

allows per match

SC Kriens

1.35

Luzern II

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Kriens+0.00on par

Luzern II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Kriens ↓

Luzern II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

SC Kriens or draw

71%

SC Kriens or Luzern II

80%

Draw or Luzern II

49%

Winning margin

SC Kriens wins by 2+

31%

Luzern II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

SC Kriens 1+ goals

90%

SC Kriens 2+ goals

67%

SC Kriens 3+ goals

40%

Luzern II 1+ goals

82%

Luzern II 2+ goals

51%

Luzern II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

SC Kriens (draw refunded)

64%

Luzern II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Kriens at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

Luzern II away — creates 2.04, concedes 2.26 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Kriens attack 2.34 + Luzern II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.30

Luzern II attack 2.04 + SC Kriens defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SC Kriens scores more

51%

level

20%

Luzern II scores more

29%

SC Kriens at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SC Kriens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff