SC Kriens 0–1 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

SC Kriens

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Basel 1893

11/1/2023

Schweizer Cup · Round of 16Stadion Kleinfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SC Kriens14%

×Draw16%

FC Basel 189369%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC KriensExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

2.75

SC Kriens

1.20

FC Basel 1893

2.75

FC Basel 1893 creates 129% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

1.40

creates per match

3.89

1.60

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

SC Kriens

1.40

FC Basel 1893

3.89

allows per match

SC Kriens

1.60

FC Basel 1893

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Kriens+0.00on par

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Kriens ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

SC Kriens or draw

31%

SC Kriens or FC Basel 1893

84%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

86%

Winning margin

SC Kriens wins by 2+

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

SC Kriens 1+ goals

70%

SC Kriens 2+ goals

34%

SC Kriens 3+ goals

12%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

93%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

75%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

SC Kriens (draw refunded)

17%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SC Kriens at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 3.89, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SC Kriens attack 1.40 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

FC Basel 1893 attack 3.89 + SC Kriens defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

SC Kriens scores more

14%

level

16%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

69%

FC Basel 1893 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff