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SC Kriens vs Étoile Carouge — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

SC Kriens
SC Kriens
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
3/9/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 22Stadion Kleinfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

SC Kriens47%
×Draw22%
Étoile Carouge31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Kriens
1.88
Étoile Carouge
1.49

SC Kriens creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 70 away

creates per match

SC Kriens
2.34
Étoile Carouge
1.63

allows per match

SC Kriens
1.35
Étoile Carouge
1.41

finishing

SC Kriens+0.00on par
Étoile Carouge+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Kriens ↓

Étoile Carouge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

SC Kriens or draw
69%
SC Kriens or Étoile Carouge
78%
Draw or Étoile Carouge
53%

Winning margin

SC Kriens wins by 2+
26%
Étoile Carouge wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SC Kriens 1+ goals
85%
SC Kriens 2+ goals
56%
SC Kriens 3+ goals
29%
Étoile Carouge 1+ goals
77%
Étoile Carouge 2+ goals
44%
Étoile Carouge 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

SC Kriens (draw refunded)
60%
Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Kriens at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

Étoile Carouge away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Kriens attack 2.34 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.88

Étoile Carouge attack 1.63 + SC Kriens defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SC Kriens scores more
47%
level
22%
Étoile Carouge scores more
31%

SC Kriens at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SC Kriens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: SC Kriens 1–3 Étoile Carouge

Étoile Carouge beat SC Kriens 3-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kleinfeld in Kriens.