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SC Kriens vs Delémont — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

SC Kriens
SC Kriens
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Delémont
Delémont
10/5/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 10Stadion Kleinfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SC Kriens57%
×Draw21%
Delémont22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Kriens
2.09
Delémont
1.24

SC Kriens creates 69% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

SC Kriens
2.34
Delémont
1.12

allows per match

SC Kriens
1.35
Delémont
1.85

finishing

SC Kriens+0.00on par
Delémont+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Kriens ↓

Delémont →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

SC Kriens or draw
78%
SC Kriens or Delémont
79%
Draw or Delémont
43%

Winning margin

SC Kriens wins by 2+
34%
Delémont wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SC Kriens 1+ goals
88%
SC Kriens 2+ goals
62%
SC Kriens 3+ goals
34%
Delémont 1+ goals
71%
Delémont 2+ goals
35%
Delémont 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SC Kriens (draw refunded)
72%
Delémont (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Kriens at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

Delémont away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Kriens attack 2.34 + Delémont defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.09

Delémont attack 1.12 + SC Kriens defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SC Kriens scores more
57%
level
21%
Delémont scores more
22%

SC Kriens at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SC Kriens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: SC Kriens 1–1 Delémont

SC Kriens and Delémont drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kleinfeld in Kriens.