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SC Idar-Oberstein vs Viktoria Herxheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

SC Idar-Oberstein
SC Idar-Oberstein
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Viktoria Herxheim
Viktoria Herxheim
5/25/2025Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 33Stadion Im Haag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SC Idar-Oberstein51%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Herxheim29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Idar-Oberstein
2.22
Viktoria Herxheim
1.64

SC Idar-Oberstein creates 35% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

SC Idar-Oberstein
1.44
Viktoria Herxheim
1.12

allows per match

SC Idar-Oberstein
2.15
Viktoria Herxheim
3.00

finishing

SC Idar-Oberstein+0.00on par
Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Idar-Oberstein ↓

Viktoria Herxheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

SC Idar-Oberstein or draw
71%
SC Idar-Oberstein or Viktoria Herxheim
79%
Draw or Viktoria Herxheim
49%

Winning margin

SC Idar-Oberstein wins by 2+
30%
Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SC Idar-Oberstein 1+ goals
89%
SC Idar-Oberstein 2+ goals
65%
SC Idar-Oberstein 3+ goals
38%
Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals
81%
Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals
49%
Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

SC Idar-Oberstein (draw refunded)
64%
Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Idar-Oberstein at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.15 · 34 matches

Viktoria Herxheim away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Idar-Oberstein attack 1.44 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.22

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.12 + SC Idar-Oberstein defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SC Idar-Oberstein scores more
51%
level
21%
Viktoria Herxheim scores more
29%

SC Idar-Oberstein at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SC Idar-Oberstein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Idar-Oberstein vs Viktoria Herxheim

SC Idar-Oberstein beat Viktoria Herxheim 3-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Im Haag in Idar-Oberstein.