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SC Genemuiden vs Vvsb — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

SC Genemuiden
SC Genemuiden
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Vvsb
Vvsb
4/20/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 30Sportpark De Wetering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

SC Genemuiden46%
×Draw23%
Vvsb31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Genemuiden
1.85
Vvsb
1.50

SC Genemuiden creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 48 away

creates per match

SC Genemuiden
1.90
Vvsb
1.63

allows per match

SC Genemuiden
1.37
Vvsb
1.81

finishing

SC Genemuiden+0.00on par
Vvsb+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Genemuiden ↓

Vvsb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

SC Genemuiden or draw
69%
SC Genemuiden or Vvsb
77%
Draw or Vvsb
54%

Winning margin

SC Genemuiden wins by 2+
25%
Vvsb wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SC Genemuiden 1+ goals
84%
SC Genemuiden 2+ goals
55%
SC Genemuiden 3+ goals
28%
Vvsb 1+ goals
78%
Vvsb 2+ goals
44%
Vvsb 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

SC Genemuiden (draw refunded)
59%
Vvsb (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Genemuiden at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

Vvsb away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Genemuiden attack 1.90 + Vvsb defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.85

Vvsb attack 1.63 + SC Genemuiden defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SC Genemuiden scores more
46%
level
23%
Vvsb scores more
31%

SC Genemuiden at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SC Genemuiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: SC Genemuiden 3–3 Vvsb

SC Genemuiden and Vvsb drew 3-3 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Wetering in Genemuiden.