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SC Genemuiden vs RKAV Volendam — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

SC Genemuiden
SC Genemuiden
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
RKAV Volendam
RKAV Volendam
11/25/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 14Sportpark De Wetering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SC Genemuiden49%
×Draw21%
RKAV Volendam30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Genemuiden
2.05
RKAV Volendam
1.56

SC Genemuiden creates 31% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

SC Genemuiden
1.90
RKAV Volendam
1.74

allows per match

SC Genemuiden
1.37
RKAV Volendam
2.21

finishing

SC Genemuiden+0.00on par
RKAV Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Genemuiden ↓

RKAV Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

SC Genemuiden or draw
70%
SC Genemuiden or RKAV Volendam
79%
Draw or RKAV Volendam
51%

Winning margin

SC Genemuiden wins by 2+
28%
RKAV Volendam wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SC Genemuiden 1+ goals
87%
SC Genemuiden 2+ goals
61%
SC Genemuiden 3+ goals
33%
RKAV Volendam 1+ goals
79%
RKAV Volendam 2+ goals
46%
RKAV Volendam 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SC Genemuiden (draw refunded)
62%
RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Genemuiden at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

RKAV Volendam away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Genemuiden attack 1.90 + RKAV Volendam defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.05

RKAV Volendam attack 1.74 + SC Genemuiden defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SC Genemuiden scores more
49%
level
21%
RKAV Volendam scores more
30%

SC Genemuiden at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SC Genemuiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: SC Genemuiden 3–1 RKAV Volendam

SC Genemuiden beat RKAV Volendam 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Wetering in Genemuiden.