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SC Genemuiden vs Rijnvogels — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

SC Genemuiden
SC Genemuiden
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rijnvogels
Rijnvogels
9/23/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 6Sportpark De Wetering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SC Genemuiden45%
×Draw22%
Rijnvogels33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Genemuiden
1.94
Rijnvogels
1.63

SC Genemuiden creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

SC Genemuiden
1.90
Rijnvogels
1.88

allows per match

SC Genemuiden
1.37
Rijnvogels
1.97

finishing

SC Genemuiden+0.00on par
Rijnvogels+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Genemuiden ↓

Rijnvogels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

SC Genemuiden or draw
67%
SC Genemuiden or Rijnvogels
78%
Draw or Rijnvogels
55%

Winning margin

SC Genemuiden wins by 2+
25%
Rijnvogels wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SC Genemuiden 1+ goals
86%
SC Genemuiden 2+ goals
58%
SC Genemuiden 3+ goals
30%
Rijnvogels 1+ goals
80%
Rijnvogels 2+ goals
48%
Rijnvogels 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

SC Genemuiden (draw refunded)
58%
Rijnvogels (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Genemuiden at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

Rijnvogels away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Genemuiden attack 1.90 + Rijnvogels defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.94

Rijnvogels attack 1.88 + SC Genemuiden defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SC Genemuiden scores more
45%
level
22%
Rijnvogels scores more
33%

SC Genemuiden at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SC Genemuiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: SC Genemuiden 1–1 Rijnvogels

SC Genemuiden and Rijnvogels drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Wetering in Genemuiden.