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SC Freital vs Motor Marienberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

SC Freital
SC Freital
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Motor Marienberg
Motor Marienberg
5/11/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 27SpA Hainsberg Rasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

SC Freital72%
×Draw16%
Motor Marienberg12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Freital
2.58
Motor Marienberg
0.95

SC Freital creates 172% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 15 away

creates per match

SC Freital
1.56
Motor Marienberg
0.73

allows per match

SC Freital
1.18
Motor Marienberg
3.60

finishing

SC Freital+0.00on par
Motor Marienberg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Freital ↓

Motor Marienberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

SC Freital or draw
88%
SC Freital or Motor Marienberg
84%
Draw or Motor Marienberg
28%

Winning margin

SC Freital wins by 2+
50%
Motor Marienberg wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

SC Freital 1+ goals
92%
SC Freital 2+ goals
72%
SC Freital 3+ goals
47%
Motor Marienberg 1+ goals
61%
Motor Marienberg 2+ goals
25%
Motor Marienberg 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SC Freital (draw refunded)
86%
Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Freital at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 62 matches

Motor Marienberg away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Freital attack 1.56 + Motor Marienberg defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.58

Motor Marienberg attack 0.73 + SC Freital defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

SC Freital scores more
72%
level
16%
Motor Marienberg scores more
12%

SC Freital at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "SC Freital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: SC Freital 1–0 Motor Marienberg

SC Freital beat Motor Marienberg 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at SpA Hainsberg Rasenplatz in Freital.