SC Freital 4–1 Blau-Weiß Zorbau: Result & Stats

SC Freital

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

9/28/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 7WGF-Arena Stadion des Friedens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

SC Freital53%

×Draw22%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC FreitalExpected goals in this matchBlau-Weiß Zorbau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.27

SC Freital

1.93

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.27

SC Freital creates 52% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 53 away

1.56

creates per match

1.36

1.18

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

SC Freital

1.56

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.36

allows per match

SC Freital

1.18

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Freital+0.00on par

Blau-Weiß Zorbau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Freital ↓

Blau-Weiß Zorbau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

SC Freital or draw

75%

SC Freital or Blau-Weiß Zorbau

78%

Draw or Blau-Weiß Zorbau

47%

Winning margin

SC Freital wins by 2+

30%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SC Freital 1+ goals

85%

SC Freital 2+ goals

57%

SC Freital 3+ goals

30%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 1+ goals

72%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 2+ goals

36%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SC Freital (draw refunded)

68%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Freital at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 62 matches

Blau-Weiß Zorbau away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Freital attack 1.56 + Blau-Weiß Zorbau defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.93

Blau-Weiß Zorbau attack 1.36 + SC Freital defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SC Freital scores more

53%

level

22%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau scores more

25%

SC Freital at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SC Freital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff