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SC Freital vs Bischofswerdaer FV — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

SC Freital
SC Freital
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bischofswerdaer FV
Bischofswerdaer FV
8/8/2025Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 2WGF-Arena Stadion des Friedens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

SC Freital42%
×Draw24%
Bischofswerdaer FV34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Freital
1.57
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.38

SC Freital creates 14% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 77 away

creates per match

SC Freital
1.56
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.57

allows per match

SC Freital
1.18
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.58

finishing

SC Freital+0.00on par
Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Freital ↓

Bischofswerdaer FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SC Freital or draw
66%
SC Freital or Bischofswerdaer FV
76%
Draw or Bischofswerdaer FV
58%

Winning margin

SC Freital wins by 2+
21%
Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SC Freital 1+ goals
79%
SC Freital 2+ goals
46%
SC Freital 3+ goals
21%
Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals
75%
Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals
40%
Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

SC Freital (draw refunded)
56%
Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Freital at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 62 matches

Bischofswerdaer FV away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Freital attack 1.56 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.57

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.57 + SC Freital defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SC Freital scores more
42%
level
24%
Bischofswerdaer FV scores more
34%

SC Freital at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SC Freital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: SC Freital 1–2 Bischofswerdaer FV

Bischofswerdaer FV beat SC Freital 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on August 8, 2025.

The match was played at WGF-Arena Stadion des Friedens in Freital.