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SC Ell vs Syra Mensdorf — Cup 2020

SC Ell
SC Ell
FT
0 – 6
Syra Mensdorf
Syra Mensdorf
9/11/2022CupCup · 1st RoundStade Um Essig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SC Ell2%
×Draw6%
Syra Mensdorf92%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Ell
0.58
Syra Mensdorf
4.08

Syra Mensdorf creates 603% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

SC Ell
0.67
Syra Mensdorf
3.50

allows per match

SC Ell
4.67
Syra Mensdorf
0.50

finishing

SC Ell+0.00on par
Syra Mensdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Ell ↓

Syra Mensdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–29%
0–312%
0–412%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (12%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

SC Ell or draw
8%
SC Ell or Syra Mensdorf
94%
Draw or Syra Mensdorf
98%

Winning margin

SC Ell wins by 2+
0%
Syra Mensdorf wins by 2+
80%

Team goals

SC Ell 1+ goals
44%
SC Ell 2+ goals
12%
SC Ell 3+ goals
2%
Syra Mensdorf 1+ goals
98%
Syra Mensdorf 2+ goals
90%
Syra Mensdorf 3+ goals
74%

Draw no bet

SC Ell (draw refunded)
2%
Syra Mensdorf (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Ell at home — creates 0.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

Syra Mensdorf away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Ell attack 0.67 + Syra Mensdorf defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Syra Mensdorf attack 3.50 + SC Ell defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 4.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

SC Ell scores more
2%
level
6%
Syra Mensdorf scores more
92%

Syra Mensdorf at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Syra Mensdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Ell vs Syra Mensdorf

Syra Mensdorf beat SC Ell 6-0 in Cup on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Um Essig in Ell.