SC Covilha 0–0 Vilafranquense: Result & Stats

SC Covilha

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vilafranquense

1/8/2023

Segunda Liga · Round 15Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

SC Covilha42%

×Draw28%

Vilafranquense30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC CovilhaExpected goals in this matchVilafranquense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.04

SC Covilha

1.28

Vilafranquense

1.04

SC Covilha creates 23% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 63 away

1.07

creates per match

1.02

1.06

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

SC Covilha

1.07

Vilafranquense

1.02

allows per match

SC Covilha

1.06

Vilafranquense

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Covilha+0.00on par

Vilafranquense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Covilha ↓

Vilafranquense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

SC Covilha or draw

70%

SC Covilha or Vilafranquense

72%

Draw or Vilafranquense

58%

Winning margin

SC Covilha wins by 2+

19%

Vilafranquense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SC Covilha 1+ goals

72%

SC Covilha 2+ goals

37%

SC Covilha 3+ goals

14%

Vilafranquense 1+ goals

65%

Vilafranquense 2+ goals

28%

Vilafranquense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

SC Covilha (draw refunded)

58%

Vilafranquense (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Covilha at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

Vilafranquense away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Covilha attack 1.07 + Vilafranquense defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.28

Vilafranquense attack 1.02 + SC Covilha defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SC Covilha scores more

42%

level

28%

Vilafranquense scores more

30%

SC Covilha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SC Covilha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff