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SC Covilha vs Varzim — Segunda Liga 2018

SC Covilha
SC Covilha
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Varzim
Varzim
12/20/2021Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 15Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

SC Covilha41%
×Draw30%
Varzim29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Covilha
1.15
Varzim
0.91

SC Covilha creates 26% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 63 away

creates per match

SC Covilha
1.07
Varzim
0.76

allows per match

SC Covilha
1.06
Varzim
1.22

finishing

SC Covilha+0.00on par
Varzim+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Covilha ↓

Varzim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SC Covilha or draw
71%
SC Covilha or Varzim
70%
Draw or Varzim
59%

Winning margin

SC Covilha wins by 2+
17%
Varzim wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SC Covilha 1+ goals
68%
SC Covilha 2+ goals
32%
SC Covilha 3+ goals
11%
Varzim 1+ goals
60%
Varzim 2+ goals
23%
Varzim 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

SC Covilha (draw refunded)
59%
Varzim (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Covilha at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

Varzim away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Covilha attack 1.07 + Varzim defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Varzim attack 0.76 + SC Covilha defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SC Covilha scores more
41%
level
30%
Varzim scores more
29%

SC Covilha at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SC Covilha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: SC Covilha 1–0 Varzim

SC Covilha beat Varzim 1-0 in Segunda Liga on December 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto in Covilhã.