SC Covilha 3–0 Sporting CP B: Result & Stats

SC Covilha

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Sporting CP B

8/13/2023

Liga 3 · Round 2Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

SC Covilha35%

×Draw27%

Sporting CP B38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC CovilhaExpected goals in this matchSporting CP B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.27

SC Covilha

1.22

Sporting CP B

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 58 away

1.18

creates per match

1.14

1.41

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

SC Covilha

1.18

Sporting CP B

1.14

allows per match

SC Covilha

1.41

Sporting CP B

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Covilha+0.00on par

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Covilha ↓

Sporting CP B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

SC Covilha or draw

62%

SC Covilha or Sporting CP B

73%

Draw or Sporting CP B

65%

Winning margin

SC Covilha wins by 2+

15%

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

SC Covilha 1+ goals

70%

SC Covilha 2+ goals

34%

SC Covilha 3+ goals

12%

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

72%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

36%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SC Covilha (draw refunded)

48%

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Covilha at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Covilha attack 1.18 + Sporting CP B defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sporting CP B attack 1.14 + SC Covilha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SC Covilha scores more

35%

level

27%

Sporting CP B scores more

38%

Sporting CP B at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff