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SC Covilha vs SC Braga B — Liga 3 2021

SC Covilha
SC Covilha
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SC Braga B
SC Braga B
4/20/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 10Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

SC Covilha35%
×Draw27%
SC Braga B39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Covilha
1.23
SC Braga B
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 73 away

creates per match

SC Covilha
1.18
SC Braga B
1.21

allows per match

SC Covilha
1.41
SC Braga B
1.27

finishing

SC Covilha+0.00on par
SC Braga B+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Covilha ↓

SC Braga B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SC Covilha or draw
61%
SC Covilha or SC Braga B
73%
Draw or SC Braga B
65%

Winning margin

SC Covilha wins by 2+
15%
SC Braga B wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SC Covilha 1+ goals
71%
SC Covilha 2+ goals
35%
SC Covilha 3+ goals
13%
SC Braga B 1+ goals
73%
SC Braga B 2+ goals
38%
SC Braga B 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SC Covilha (draw refunded)
47%
SC Braga B (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Covilha at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

SC Braga B away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Covilha attack 1.18 + SC Braga B defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

SC Braga B attack 1.21 + SC Covilha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SC Covilha scores more
35%
level
27%
SC Braga B scores more
39%

SC Braga B at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SC Braga B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: SC Covilha 1–2 SC Braga B

SC Braga B beat SC Covilha 2-1 in Liga 3 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto in Covilhã.