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SC Covilha vs Portimonense — Taça de Portugal 2018

SC Covilha
SC Covilha
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Portimonense
Portimonense
10/20/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal José Santos Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SC Covilha29%
×Draw23%
Portimonense48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Covilha
1.41
Portimonense
1.88

Portimonense creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

SC Covilha
1.57
Portimonense
1.75

allows per match

SC Covilha
2.00
Portimonense
1.25

finishing

SC Covilha+0.00on par
Portimonense+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Covilha ↓

Portimonense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SC Covilha or draw
52%
SC Covilha or Portimonense
77%
Draw or Portimonense
71%

Winning margin

SC Covilha wins by 2+
13%
Portimonense wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

SC Covilha 1+ goals
76%
SC Covilha 2+ goals
41%
SC Covilha 3+ goals
17%
Portimonense 1+ goals
85%
Portimonense 2+ goals
56%
Portimonense 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

SC Covilha (draw refunded)
37%
Portimonense (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Covilha at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Portimonense away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Covilha attack 1.57 + Portimonense defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Portimonense attack 1.75 + SC Covilha defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SC Covilha scores more
29%
level
23%
Portimonense scores more
48%

Portimonense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Portimonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: SC Covilha 1–4 Portimonense

Portimonense beat SC Covilha 4-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto in Covilhã.