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SC Covilha vs Lusitano Évora 1911 — Taça de Portugal 2018

SC Covilha
SC Covilha
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Lusitano Évora 1911
Lusitano Évora 1911advanced
11/22/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SC Covilha17%
×Draw17%
Lusitano Évora 191166%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Covilha
1.29
Lusitano Évora 1911
2.67

Lusitano Évora 1911 creates 107% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

SC Covilha
1.57
Lusitano Évora 1911
3.33

allows per match

SC Covilha
2.00
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.00

finishing

SC Covilha+0.00on par
Lusitano Évora 1911+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Covilha ↓

Lusitano Évora 1911 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

SC Covilha or draw
34%
SC Covilha or Lusitano Évora 1911
83%
Draw or Lusitano Évora 1911
83%

Winning margin

SC Covilha wins by 2+
7%
Lusitano Évora 1911 wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

SC Covilha 1+ goals
72%
SC Covilha 2+ goals
37%
SC Covilha 3+ goals
14%
Lusitano Évora 1911 1+ goals
93%
Lusitano Évora 1911 2+ goals
74%
Lusitano Évora 1911 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

SC Covilha (draw refunded)
20%
Lusitano Évora 1911 (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Covilha at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Lusitano Évora 1911 away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Covilha attack 1.57 + Lusitano Évora 1911 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lusitano Évora 1911 attack 3.33 + SC Covilha defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

SC Covilha scores more
17%
level
17%
Lusitano Évora 1911 scores more
66%

Lusitano Évora 1911 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Lusitano Évora 1911 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Covilha vs Lusitano Évora 1911

Lusitano Évora 1911 beat SC Covilha 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 22, 2025.