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SC Covilha vs Alverca — Segunda Liga 2018

SC Covilha
SC Covilha
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alverca
Alverca
5/29/2022Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Relegation RoundEstádio Municipal José Santos Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

SC Covilha32%
×Draw28%
Alverca39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Covilha
1.09
Alverca
1.23

Alverca creates 13% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 18 away

creates per match

SC Covilha
1.07
Alverca
1.39

allows per match

SC Covilha
1.06
Alverca
1.11

finishing

SC Covilha+0.00on par
Alverca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Covilha ↓

Alverca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

SC Covilha or draw
61%
SC Covilha or Alverca
72%
Draw or Alverca
68%

Winning margin

SC Covilha wins by 2+
13%
Alverca wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SC Covilha 1+ goals
66%
SC Covilha 2+ goals
30%
SC Covilha 3+ goals
10%
Alverca 1+ goals
71%
Alverca 2+ goals
35%
Alverca 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SC Covilha (draw refunded)
45%
Alverca (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Covilha at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

Alverca away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Covilha attack 1.07 + Alverca defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Alverca attack 1.39 + SC Covilha defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SC Covilha scores more
32%
level
28%
Alverca scores more
39%

Alverca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Covilha vs Alverca

SC Covilha beat Alverca 2-0 in Segunda Liga on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto in Covilhã.