SC Braga 4–1 Portimonense: Result & Stats

SC Braga

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Portimonense

4/29/2023

Primeira Liga · Round 30Estádio Municipal de Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

SC Braga58%

×Draw23%

Portimonense19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC BragaExpected goals in this matchPortimonense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.92

SC Braga

1.82

Portimonense

0.92

SC Braga creates 98% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 103 away

1.90

creates per match

0.87

0.96

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

SC Braga

1.90

Portimonense

0.87

allows per match

SC Braga

0.96

Portimonense

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Braga+0.00on par

Portimonense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga ↓

Portimonense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

SC Braga or draw

81%

SC Braga or Portimonense

77%

Draw or Portimonense

42%

Winning margin

SC Braga wins by 2+

34%

Portimonense wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

SC Braga 1+ goals

84%

SC Braga 2+ goals

54%

SC Braga 3+ goals

27%

Portimonense 1+ goals

60%

Portimonense 2+ goals

23%

Portimonense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

SC Braga (draw refunded)

76%

Portimonense (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.96 · 136 matches

Portimonense away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga attack 1.90 + Portimonense defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.82

Portimonense attack 0.87 + SC Braga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

SC Braga scores more

58%

level

23%

Portimonense scores more

19%

SC Braga at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SC Braga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff