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SC Braga vs Lusitano Évora 1911 — Taça de Portugal 2018

SC Braga
SC Bragaadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lusitano Évora 1911
Lusitano Évora 1911
1/15/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 16Estádio Municipal de Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SC Braga30%
×Draw21%
Lusitano Évora 191149%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Braga
1.68
Lusitano Évora 1911
2.17

Lusitano Évora 1911 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

creates per match

SC Braga
2.36
Lusitano Évora 1911
3.33

allows per match

SC Braga
1.00
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.00

finishing

SC Braga+0.00on par
Lusitano Évora 1911+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga ↓

Lusitano Évora 1911 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

SC Braga or draw
51%
SC Braga or Lusitano Évora 1911
79%
Draw or Lusitano Évora 1911
70%

Winning margin

SC Braga wins by 2+
15%
Lusitano Évora 1911 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

SC Braga 1+ goals
81%
SC Braga 2+ goals
50%
SC Braga 3+ goals
24%
Lusitano Évora 1911 1+ goals
89%
Lusitano Évora 1911 2+ goals
64%
Lusitano Évora 1911 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

SC Braga (draw refunded)
38%
Lusitano Évora 1911 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Lusitano Évora 1911 away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga attack 2.36 + Lusitano Évora 1911 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Lusitano Évora 1911 attack 3.33 + SC Braga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SC Braga scores more
30%
level
21%
Lusitano Évora 1911 scores more
49%

Lusitano Évora 1911 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lusitano Évora 1911 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: SC Braga 2–1 Lusitano Évora 1911

SC Braga beat Lusitano Évora 1911 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on January 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Braga in Braga.