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SC Braga B vs União de Leiria — Liga 3 2021

SC Braga B
SC Braga B
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
4/9/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 2Complex Desportivo Clube de Futebol de Fão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

SC Braga B34%
×Draw28%
União de Leiria38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Braga B
1.13
União de Leiria
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 29 away

creates per match

SC Braga B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.55

allows per match

SC Braga B
0.84
União de Leiria
0.97

finishing

SC Braga B+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga B ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

SC Braga B or draw
62%
SC Braga B or União de Leiria
72%
Draw or União de Leiria
66%

Winning margin

SC Braga B wins by 2+
14%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SC Braga B 1+ goals
68%
SC Braga B 2+ goals
31%
SC Braga B 3+ goals
11%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
70%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
34%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SC Braga B (draw refunded)
48%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga B at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.84 · 73 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga B attack 1.29 + União de Leiria defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13

União de Leiria attack 1.55 + SC Braga B defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SC Braga B scores more
34%
level
28%
União de Leiria scores more
38%

União de Leiria at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: SC Braga B 1–0 União de Leiria

SC Braga B beat União de Leiria 1-0 in Liga 3 on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Complex Desportivo Clube de Futebol de Fão in Fão.