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SC Braga B vs FC Porto B — Segunda Liga 2018

SC Braga B
SC Braga B
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Porto B
FC Porto B
1/9/2019Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 16Estádio 1º de Maio (Braga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

SC Braga B42%
×Draw26%
FC Porto B32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Braga B
1.43
FC Porto B
1.21

SC Braga B creates 18% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 133 away

creates per match

SC Braga B
1.32
FC Porto B
1.18

allows per match

SC Braga B
1.24
FC Porto B
1.53

finishing

SC Braga B+0.00on par
FC Porto B+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga B ↓

FC Porto B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

SC Braga B or draw
68%
SC Braga B or FC Porto B
74%
Draw or FC Porto B
58%

Winning margin

SC Braga B wins by 2+
20%
FC Porto B wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SC Braga B 1+ goals
76%
SC Braga B 2+ goals
42%
SC Braga B 3+ goals
17%
FC Porto B 1+ goals
70%
FC Porto B 2+ goals
34%
FC Porto B 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SC Braga B (draw refunded)
57%
FC Porto B (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga B at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

FC Porto B away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga B attack 1.32 + FC Porto B defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

FC Porto B attack 1.18 + SC Braga B defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SC Braga B scores more
42%
level
26%
FC Porto B scores more
32%

SC Braga B at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SC Braga B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: SC Braga B 0–1 FC Porto B

FC Porto B beat SC Braga B 1-0 in Segunda Liga on January 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio (Braga).