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SC Braga B vs Cova De Piedade — Segunda Liga 2018

SC Braga B
SC Braga B
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
4/12/2019Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 29Estádio 1º de Maio (Braga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SC Braga B50%
×Draw26%
Cova De Piedade24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Braga B
1.52
Cova De Piedade
0.98

SC Braga B creates 55% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 46 away

creates per match

SC Braga B
1.41
Cova De Piedade
0.83

allows per match

SC Braga B
1.12
Cova De Piedade
1.63

finishing

SC Braga B+0.00on par
Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga B ↓

Cova De Piedade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SC Braga B or draw
76%
SC Braga B or Cova De Piedade
74%
Draw or Cova De Piedade
50%

Winning margin

SC Braga B wins by 2+
25%
Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SC Braga B 1+ goals
78%
SC Braga B 2+ goals
45%
SC Braga B 3+ goals
20%
Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
62%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
26%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

SC Braga B (draw refunded)
67%
Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga B at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga B attack 1.41 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cova De Piedade attack 0.83 + SC Braga B defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SC Braga B scores more
50%
level
26%
Cova De Piedade scores more
24%

SC Braga B at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SC Braga B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Braga B vs Cova De Piedade

Cova De Piedade beat SC Braga B 1-0 in Segunda Liga on April 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio (Braga).