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SC Braga B vs Canelas 2010 — Liga 3 2021

SC Braga B
SC Braga B
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Canelas 2010
Canelas 2010
9/4/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 3Complex Desportivo Clube de Futebol de Fão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

SC Braga B44%
×Draw29%
Canelas 201027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Braga B
1.24
Canelas 2010
0.89

SC Braga B creates 39% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 42 away

creates per match

SC Braga B
1.29
Canelas 2010
0.93

allows per match

SC Braga B
0.84
Canelas 2010
1.19

finishing

SC Braga B+0.00on par
Canelas 2010+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga B ↓

Canelas 2010 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SC Braga B or draw
73%
SC Braga B or Canelas 2010
71%
Draw or Canelas 2010
56%

Winning margin

SC Braga B wins by 2+
20%
Canelas 2010 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SC Braga B 1+ goals
71%
SC Braga B 2+ goals
35%
SC Braga B 3+ goals
13%
Canelas 2010 1+ goals
59%
Canelas 2010 2+ goals
22%
Canelas 2010 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

SC Braga B (draw refunded)
63%
Canelas 2010 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga B at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.84 · 73 matches

Canelas 2010 away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga B attack 1.29 + Canelas 2010 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.24

Canelas 2010 attack 0.93 + SC Braga B defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SC Braga B scores more
44%
level
29%
Canelas 2010 scores more
27%

SC Braga B at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SC Braga B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: SC Braga B 2–1 Canelas 2010

SC Braga B beat Canelas 2010 2-1 in Liga 3 on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Complex Desportivo Clube de Futebol de Fão in Fão.