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SC Braga B vs Academico Viseu — Segunda Liga 2018

SC Braga B
SC Braga B
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
10/7/2018Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 6Estádio 1º de Maio (Braga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

SC Braga B40%
×Draw27%
Academico Viseu33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Braga B
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.20

SC Braga B creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 133 away

creates per match

SC Braga B
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.16

allows per match

SC Braga B
1.24
Academico Viseu
1.38

finishing

SC Braga B+0.00on par
Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga B ↓

Academico Viseu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SC Braga B or draw
67%
SC Braga B or Academico Viseu
73%
Draw or Academico Viseu
60%

Winning margin

SC Braga B wins by 2+
18%
Academico Viseu wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SC Braga B 1+ goals
74%
SC Braga B 2+ goals
39%
SC Braga B 3+ goals
15%
Academico Viseu 1+ goals
70%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
34%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SC Braga B (draw refunded)
55%
Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga B at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga B attack 1.32 + Academico Viseu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Academico Viseu attack 1.16 + SC Braga B defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SC Braga B scores more
40%
level
27%
Academico Viseu scores more
33%

SC Braga B at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SC Braga B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: SC Braga B 2–0 Academico Viseu

SC Braga B beat Academico Viseu 2-0 in Segunda Liga on October 7, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio (Braga).