Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SC Bengaluru vs Sreenidi Deccan — I-League 2019

SC Bengaluru
SC Bengaluru
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sreenidi Deccan
Sreenidi Deccan
1/24/2025I-LeagueI-League · Round 10Bangalore Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SC Bengaluru35%
×Draw25%
Sreenidi Deccan39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Bengaluru
1.35
Sreenidi Deccan
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 51 away

creates per match

SC Bengaluru
1.45
Sreenidi Deccan
1.59

allows per match

SC Bengaluru
1.27
Sreenidi Deccan
1.25

finishing

SC Bengaluru+0.00on par
Sreenidi Deccan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Bengaluru ↓

Sreenidi Deccan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SC Bengaluru or draw
61%
SC Bengaluru or Sreenidi Deccan
75%
Draw or Sreenidi Deccan
65%

Winning margin

SC Bengaluru wins by 2+
16%
Sreenidi Deccan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

SC Bengaluru 1+ goals
74%
SC Bengaluru 2+ goals
39%
SC Bengaluru 3+ goals
15%
Sreenidi Deccan 1+ goals
76%
Sreenidi Deccan 2+ goals
42%
Sreenidi Deccan 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

SC Bengaluru (draw refunded)
48%
Sreenidi Deccan (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Bengaluru at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Sreenidi Deccan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Bengaluru attack 1.45 + Sreenidi Deccan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sreenidi Deccan attack 1.59 + SC Bengaluru defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SC Bengaluru scores more
35%
level
25%
Sreenidi Deccan scores more
39%

Sreenidi Deccan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sreenidi Deccan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: SC Bengaluru 1–0 Sreenidi Deccan

SC Bengaluru beat Sreenidi Deccan 1-0 in I-League on January 24, 2025.

The match was played at Bangalore Football Stadium in Bangalore.