SC Bengaluru 2–2 Rajasthan United: Result & Stats

SC Bengaluru

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rajasthan United

2/13/2025

I-League · Round 14Bangalore Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SC Bengaluru49%

×Draw24%

Rajasthan United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC BengaluruExpected goals in this matchRajasthan United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.25

SC Bengaluru

1.75

Rajasthan United

1.25

SC Bengaluru creates 40% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 49 away

1.45

creates per match

1.24

1.27

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

SC Bengaluru

1.45

Rajasthan United

1.24

allows per match

SC Bengaluru

1.27

Rajasthan United

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Bengaluru+0.00on par

Rajasthan United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Bengaluru ↓

Rajasthan United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

SC Bengaluru or draw

73%

SC Bengaluru or Rajasthan United

76%

Draw or Rajasthan United

51%

Winning margin

SC Bengaluru wins by 2+

27%

Rajasthan United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SC Bengaluru 1+ goals

83%

SC Bengaluru 2+ goals

52%

SC Bengaluru 3+ goals

25%

Rajasthan United 1+ goals

71%

Rajasthan United 2+ goals

36%

Rajasthan United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

SC Bengaluru (draw refunded)

64%

Rajasthan United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Bengaluru at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Rajasthan United away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Bengaluru attack 1.45 + Rajasthan United defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.75

Rajasthan United attack 1.24 + SC Bengaluru defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SC Bengaluru scores more

49%

level

24%

Rajasthan United scores more

27%

SC Bengaluru at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SC Bengaluru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff