SC Bengaluru 1–2 Gokulam: Result & Stats | I-League

SC Bengaluru

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Gokulam

T. Shimray 90'

A. Niane 75'

T. Brown 46'

3/22/2025

I-League · Round 20Bangalore Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SC Bengaluru34%

×Draw25%

Gokulam40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC BengaluruExpected goals in this matchGokulam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.46

SC Bengaluru

1.33

Gokulam

1.46

Gokulam creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 65 away

1.45

creates per match

1.66

1.27

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

SC Bengaluru

1.45

Gokulam

1.66

allows per match

SC Bengaluru

1.27

Gokulam

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Bengaluru+0.00on par

Gokulam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Bengaluru ↓

Gokulam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

SC Bengaluru or draw

60%

SC Bengaluru or Gokulam

75%

Draw or Gokulam

66%

Winning margin

SC Bengaluru wins by 2+

15%

Gokulam wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

SC Bengaluru 1+ goals

74%

SC Bengaluru 2+ goals

38%

SC Bengaluru 3+ goals

15%

Gokulam 1+ goals

77%

Gokulam 2+ goals

43%

Gokulam 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

SC Bengaluru (draw refunded)

46%

Gokulam (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Bengaluru at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Gokulam away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.22 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Bengaluru attack 1.45 + Gokulam defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gokulam attack 1.66 + SC Bengaluru defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SC Bengaluru scores more

34%

level

25%

Gokulam scores more

40%

Gokulam at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gokulam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

I. Raghunanda

14'

P. Shafeel

27'

35'

35'

42'

43'

46'

B. Ajayan← A. Unnikrishnan

46'

T. Brown

65'

R. Ramdinthara← S. Vadakkepeedika

70'

V. Velan← Asif OM

75'

A. Niane

81'

J. Devassy← Kishan Singh

81'

A. Jha← I. Raghunanda

89'

R. Puthanveettil← T. Brown

90+4'

A. Shaikh

90+3'

M. Kannan← F. Methukayil

90+3'

A. Shaikh← H. Kisekka

90'

T. Shimray↳ H. Kisekka

SC

Gokulam

12

66

18

93

4

▼

28

7

17

21

⚽

▼

Brown

10

▼

Cháves

15

▼

37

3

21

12

15

13

▼

Methukayi

6

▼

Singh

18

▼

OM

8

A

▼

Kisekka

11

⚽

Shimray

17

▼

Raghunand

Manager: C. Rao

70'▲V. Velan←▼Asif OM

81'▲J. Devassy←▼Kishan Singh

81'▲A. Jha←▼I. Raghunanda

90+3'▲M. Kannan←▼F. Methukayil

90+3'▲A. Shaikh←▼H. Kisekka

SC Bengaluru substitutes

14Velan30Devassy23Jha5Kannan32Shaikh1Bordoloi24Kumar7Singh22Lomba29Narayanapuram

Manager: Antonio Rueda

27'▲A. Niane←▼M. Cháves

46'▲B. Ajayan←▼A. Unnikrishnan

65'▲R. Ramdinthara←▼S. Vadakkepeedika

89'▲R. Puthanveettil←▼T. Brown

Gokulam substitutes

9Niane30Ajayan11Ramdinthara6Puthanveettil95Stanisavić24Pandre77Mandal42Raj1Singh