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SC Bengaluru vs Delhi FC — I-League 2019

SC Bengaluru
SC Bengaluru
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Delhi FC
Delhi FC
12/13/2024I-LeagueI-League · Round 5Bangalore Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SC Bengaluru44%
×Draw23%
Delhi FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Bengaluru
1.71
Delhi FC
1.46

SC Bengaluru creates 17% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

creates per match

SC Bengaluru
1.45
Delhi FC
1.65

allows per match

SC Bengaluru
1.27
Delhi FC
1.96

finishing

SC Bengaluru+0.00on par
Delhi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Bengaluru ↓

Delhi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SC Bengaluru or draw
67%
SC Bengaluru or Delhi FC
77%
Draw or Delhi FC
56%

Winning margin

SC Bengaluru wins by 2+
23%
Delhi FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SC Bengaluru 1+ goals
82%
SC Bengaluru 2+ goals
51%
SC Bengaluru 3+ goals
24%
Delhi FC 1+ goals
77%
Delhi FC 2+ goals
43%
Delhi FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

SC Bengaluru (draw refunded)
57%
Delhi FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Bengaluru at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Delhi FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Bengaluru attack 1.45 + Delhi FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.71

Delhi FC attack 1.65 + SC Bengaluru defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SC Bengaluru scores more
44%
level
23%
Delhi FC scores more
33%

SC Bengaluru at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SC Bengaluru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: SC Bengaluru 2–2 Delhi FC

SC Bengaluru and Delhi FC drew 2-2 in I-League on December 13, 2024.

The match was played at Bangalore Football Stadium in Bangalore.