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SC Bastia vs Nice — Ligue 1 2018

SC Bastia
SC Bastia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nice
Nice
1/20/2017Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Stade Armand Cesari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SC Bastia47%
×Draw28%
Nice24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Bastia
1.31
Nice
0.85

SC Bastia creates 54% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 125 away

creates per match

SC Bastia
1.40
Nice
1.10

allows per match

SC Bastia
0.60
Nice
1.22

finishing

SC Bastia+0.00on par
Nice+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Bastia ↓

Nice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SC Bastia or draw
76%
SC Bastia or Nice
72%
Draw or Nice
53%

Winning margin

SC Bastia wins by 2+
22%
Nice wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SC Bastia 1+ goals
73%
SC Bastia 2+ goals
38%
SC Bastia 3+ goals
14%
Nice 1+ goals
57%
Nice 2+ goals
21%
Nice 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

SC Bastia (draw refunded)
66%
Nice (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Bastia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Nice away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.22 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Bastia attack 1.40 + Nice defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Nice attack 1.10 + SC Bastia defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SC Bastia scores more
47%
level
28%
Nice scores more
24%

SC Bastia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SC Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Bastia vs Nice

SC Bastia and Nice drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on January 20, 2017.

The match was played at Stade Armand Cesari in Bastia.