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SC Bastia vs Le Mans — Coupe de France 2018

SC Bastia
SC Bastia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Le Mans
Le Mans
11/17/2018Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade Armand-Césari (Furiani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SC Bastia42%
×Draw24%
Le Mans34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Bastia
1.58
Le Mans
1.41

SC Bastia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

SC Bastia
1.86
Le Mans
2.10

allows per match

SC Bastia
0.71
Le Mans
1.30

finishing

SC Bastia+0.00on par
Le Mans+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Bastia ↓

Le Mans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SC Bastia or draw
66%
SC Bastia or Le Mans
76%
Draw or Le Mans
58%

Winning margin

SC Bastia wins by 2+
21%
Le Mans wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SC Bastia 1+ goals
79%
SC Bastia 2+ goals
47%
SC Bastia 3+ goals
21%
Le Mans 1+ goals
76%
Le Mans 2+ goals
41%
Le Mans 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

SC Bastia (draw refunded)
55%
Le Mans (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Bastia at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Le Mans away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Bastia attack 1.86 + Le Mans defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.58

Le Mans attack 2.10 + SC Bastia defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SC Bastia scores more
42%
level
24%
Le Mans scores more
34%

SC Bastia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SC Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Bastia vs Le Mans

SC Bastia beat Le Mans 2-1 in Coupe de France on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Armand-Césari (Furiani).