Sbikha 1–1 Jendouba Sport: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Sbikha

FT

1 – 1

Jendouba Sport

2/6/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Municipal de Sbikha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sbikha35%

×Draw27%

Jendouba Sport39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SbikhaExpected goals in this matchJendouba Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.33

Sbikha

1.25

Jendouba Sport

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 59 away

1.40

creates per match

0.86

1.80

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Sbikha

1.40

Jendouba Sport

0.86

allows per match

Sbikha

1.80

Jendouba Sport

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sbikha+0.00on par

Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sbikha ↓

Jendouba Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sbikha or draw

61%

Sbikha or Jendouba Sport

73%

Draw or Jendouba Sport

65%

Winning margin

Sbikha wins by 2+

15%

Jendouba Sport wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sbikha 1+ goals

71%

Sbikha 2+ goals

36%

Sbikha 3+ goals

13%

Jendouba Sport 1+ goals

74%

Jendouba Sport 2+ goals

38%

Jendouba Sport 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sbikha (draw refunded)

47%

Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sbikha at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sbikha attack 1.40 + Jendouba Sport defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Jendouba Sport attack 0.86 + Sbikha defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sbikha scores more

35%

level

27%

Jendouba Sport scores more

39%

Jendouba Sport at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jendouba Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff