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Sbikha vs Esperance Tunis — Cup 2019

Sbikha
Sbikha
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Esperance Tunis
Esperance Tunis
3/11/2020CupCup · 16th FinalsStade Municipal de Sbikha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sbikha12%
×Draw21%
Esperance Tunis68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sbikha
0.66
Esperance Tunis
1.94

Esperance Tunis creates 194% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sbikha
1.00
Esperance Tunis
2.38

allows per match

Sbikha
1.50
Esperance Tunis
0.31

finishing

Sbikha+0.00on par
Esperance Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sbikha ↓

Esperance Tunis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–114%
0–214%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sbikha or draw
32%
Sbikha or Esperance Tunis
79%
Draw or Esperance Tunis
88%

Winning margin

Sbikha wins by 2+
3%
Esperance Tunis wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Sbikha 1+ goals
48%
Sbikha 2+ goals
14%
Sbikha 3+ goals
3%
Esperance Tunis 1+ goals
86%
Esperance Tunis 2+ goals
58%
Esperance Tunis 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Sbikha (draw refunded)
15%
Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sbikha at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Esperance Tunis away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sbikha attack 1.00 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.66

Esperance Tunis attack 2.38 + Sbikha defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sbikha scores more
12%
level
21%
Esperance Tunis scores more
68%

Esperance Tunis at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Esperance Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Sbikha 0–2 Esperance Tunis

Esperance Tunis beat Sbikha 2-0 in Cup on March 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Sbikha in As-Subayhah.