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Sayana Haskovo vs Vereya Stara Zagora — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sayana Haskovo
Sayana Haskovo
FT
6 – 2
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
3/31/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 26Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sayana Haskovo86%
×Draw10%
Vereya Stara Zagora4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sayana Haskovo
3.19
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.61

Sayana Haskovo creates 423% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 36 away

creates per match

Sayana Haskovo
2.08
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.53

allows per match

Sayana Haskovo
0.70
Vereya Stara Zagora
4.31

finishing

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sayana Haskovo ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Sayana Haskovo or draw
96%
Sayana Haskovo or Vereya Stara Zagora
90%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
14%

Winning margin

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+
69%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals
96%
Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals
82%
Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals
60%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
46%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
13%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)
95%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sayana Haskovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.70 · 92 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sayana Haskovo attack 2.08 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 4.31 → ÷2 → 3.19

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.53 + Sayana Haskovo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Sayana Haskovo scores more
86%
level
10%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
4%

Sayana Haskovo at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Sayana Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sayana Haskovo vs Vereya Stara Zagora

Sayana Haskovo beat Vereya Stara Zagora 6-2 in Third League - Southeast on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev in Haskovo.